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Such a collapse would have a catastrophic effect on global weather systems. A new analysis of the Atlantic Tropic Meridional Circulation revealed that it would suffer “an almost complete loss of stability”.
One of the most important ocean current systems regulating the climate in the Northern Hemisphere may be on the brink of collapse due to climate change. The revelation comes from a new analysis of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which covers the Gulf Stream and is responsible for moderating much of the world’s climate, which has reportedly suffered “an almost complete loss of stability over the past century.” The author of the study is Niklas Boers, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
The collapse of the Gulf Stream and its consequences
The currents act like a conveyor belt that carries warm, salt water north from the tropics and cold water south along the seabed. This gigantic “ribbon” had already shown itself to be at its weakest point, but was now able to break down completely. Such a collapse would have a catastrophic effect on global weather systems, leading to higher sea levels in the Atlantic, greater cooling and more severe storms in the Northern Hemisphere. According to the UK Meteorological Bureau, this would also lead to severe disruptions to the rainfall needed to grow crops in Africa, South America and India.
For Niklas Boers, “the results support the assessment that the decline in AMOC is not just a fluctuation or linear response to rising temperatures, but likely means that we are approaching a critical threshold beyond which the circulation system may collapse.” Data from analysis to date show that AMOC can exist in two stable states: the stronger, the faster that people currently rely on, and another, much slower and weaker. According to Boers, the existence of these two states implies that “in principle, abrupt transitions between the two modes of circulation are possible.”
This means that the current could weaken to a tipping point, going from a stronger to a weaker state that could rapidly change the climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere, becoming much less moderate than it is today. New research is trying to understand if the recent decline in AMOC means that it will just circulate a bit slower, but in a way that people can control through reduced carbon emissions, or whether it is about to turn into a permanently weaker form that cannot remain. inverted over hundreds of years.
The density of the water in the ocean depends largely on its temperature and salinity. Currently, the saltier, southern part of the current becomes cooler – and therefore denser – as it moves closer to the northern part. The additional density caused by the presence of salt allows the southern water to sink below the less salty northern water, thus forcing it south in an endless global conveyor. Today, warmer temperatures and the increased freshwater influx due to melting glaciers have made the water warmer and less salty, and the current less dense and less able to flood. It is this state that can threaten to stop the entire flow of AMOC and create a devastating and irreversible change in global climate systems.
In relation to climate change, scientists from Anglia Ruskin University in Cambridge analyzed which place has the greatest potential to survive the global warming crisis and chose New Zealand as the best place to survive the apocalypse.
Stefania Bernardini
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